IDIAP Presentation
November 24, 2005
 
 

a 25 year action research lab:
human cognition, communication, design

part three of three

 

Part Three includes:

some interesting questions; comments on As We May Think, my final thoughts and Postscript.

Part One includes:

the context for the remarks that follow: an introduction to MG Taylor and the work experience upon which my comments as based; the 3 Cat process we employ to do rapid prototyping; why we promote ValueWebs® and network architectures for organizations; my personal history and how this shaped my approach to technology design and use; and, a critique of contemporary trends in computer and multimedia applications.

Part Two includes:

a brief description of the Taylor Method; how we use technology; how we know it works; and, what we have learned.

 

 
 
Interesting Questions
The next 25 years. In 1975, I took the position, In my ReDesigning the Furture courses, that there would be as much technical, social and economic change, globally, by the year 2000 than had occurred since the Middle Ages. Most though that this was wildly off the mark. I do not think so. Technology went from the Altair to Amazon.com. Society went from the Soviet Union to a proliferation of democracies and the rise of a non-state sponsored counter movement which we call terrorism. Economically, we have now the EEU, India and China as major players, many “3rd World” countries following close behind with a steep increase in global connectivity, travel and business interaction. A true global economy is being born. This change is full of good news and bad from a significant increase in pockets of freedom and prosperity to global warming and a population that cannot be sustained at our present social, economic, political, technical, architectural configuration. Almost every change curve you want to plot, other than human capacity to act intelligently and our organizations to respond adequately [future link], is exponential and shows little sign of cresting. Most of the critical ones we are at the beginning of the curve not at the top. In 50 years we have evolved from C.P. Snow’s Two Cultures controversy [link: bridging the two cultures divide] to a gap of a much more insidious problem: our poor understanding of the world we are creating and our lack of ability to be requite with it and engage in it, benignly. Moore’s Law is likely to hold for some time [future link]. The implications of this, along with the new technologies in development, for the computing capacity of common machines is pointed out my Kurtzweil [future link]. This alone, and the myriad of innovations it is likely to drive, is enough to give one pause. It is conservative to say that that disruptive technology innovation curve of the next two decades may match the whole of the last Century. It is not easy to imagine what this statement may mean in concrete detail. A recent Scenario issued from the U.S. security community forecast China buying 30 million cars over the next few decades [future link]. What will be the ecological and geopolitical impacts of this? It is time for multidisciplinary teams to systematically develop rigorous scenarios and bring these to the decision processes of the world - which themselves must be radically improved. It is time to create our future by design - not default [future link]. This work needs to inform research and technology innovation neither binding it nor casting it out of the body politic - nor, defaulting to the circumstance in which it proceeds in a vacuum. It is perhaps the decisions we make as producers and consumers that are the most critical. Humankind is literally “eating” the Earth and the rate that we are changing the planet is increasing. The consequences of this for good and bad are not adequately modeled. We are getting ahead of ourselves - you cannot be a steward if you are blind. Even within the model that the Earth is “property” for humanity to with as we please, not a concept that everyone would agree with, we are showing ourselves to be lousy managers. more to come
 
Media compression and integration of information, context, options, conditions and simulations. more to come
 
Human Machine interface and mutual augmentation... more to come
 
Intelligence. With the introduction of machine intelligence, what ever that turns out to be - in terms of its possibility, timing and character - this will spark a debate on the nature of human intelligence and the idea of intelligence in general. I predict that this will also include rethinking our concept of intelligence in regards all living things and the possibility of intelligence beyond the boundaries of this planet. Like all paradigm shifts, this will cause us to rethink our notion of the human and, again, what we can do with technology. This “3 Cat” cycle will accelerate and become a virtuous positive return. It also will prove as difficult on the social level as was the Copernican Revolution [future link: kuhn]. Our society is close enough to this reality now to merit launching into a rigorous multidisciplinary research and design process which looks at all of the implications of what we are likely give birth to and think seriously - really seriously - about the technical, economic, social, ethical, legal, moral and esthetic implications. more to come
 
What is human? The seminal question. We may think we know the answer to this question - I submit that we do not. We do not know our true nature, based on the last 10,000 years of human experience, and we are entering into an era where we will have the means to change our world totally - including ourselves. What is human economy in a world of genetics, nanotechnology and as much computing power in a personal “computer,” affordable by the vast majority, than now exists anywhere? What is work in these circumstances and the massive application of “automation?”? What constitutes a human organization and government? What is a viable social system? Is a person with chemical, mechanical and computer augmentation, a human? Does it matter if these are implanted or merely features of the environment in which you live? Crude as they are, all of these exist today. more to come
As We May Think

I want to return to Vannevar Bush. His paper is generally recognized as the first seminal work on knowledge augmentation. This work was developed and turned into an extended research program by Doug Engalbart, Allen Kay, Ted Nelson and others. Practicing architecture, I was ignorant of all this work when I built the conceptual model of CyberCon. I built my concepts of augmentation from my study of cybernetics and systems, and, from thinking about and designing solutions in hope of supporting the work I was doing. This involved jumping from theory to practice with very little awareness of the state or course of technology at the time. At the Renascence Project and MG Taylor, we conceived a great deal of the Internet, e-commerce and the form-factors of the devices used today. I was hostile and remain so to the notion of “applications” as they emerged in the personal computer world and was astounded by the augmentation literature when I first discovered it in the mid-80s. It seems that these seminal thinkers assumed many of the same approaches that I had. The difference is they were in the game and had a great impact in the early days of personal computing and the building of network systems. I do not see so much of this influence now. I do know from causal dialog, in recent years, with Doug Engalbart that he believes many - perhaps, most - of his ideas and those of his peers have been ignored he is carrying on the work at the Bootstrap Institute [future link]. I believe that he sees little of what he would call true augmentation in the marketplace today. It is all about “applications” that let you do things not about capabilities that augment your ability to produce solutions. For me, all this went full circle when the Japan Stanford Institute had me come to Japan, in 2001, to dialog with a group of engineers, from different disciplines, whose task was to go back to As We May Think and see what the opportunities are for this thinking given the technology that now exists. A worthy task. We should rethink “as We May Think.” Technology development is the consequence of “push-pull” processes - it is heuristic and intentional at the same time. Innovation pushes - the market adapts innovation and itself - and pulls. It is possible to be brilliant and blind to greater consequences and opportunities at the same time. It is possible to think of old ideas as out of date, irrelevant or wrong when then may have real gold buried in them from the perspective of capability and experience that did not exist in their time. Originating ideas often are proven flawed or are just skipped over but they often carry a clarity and power that is lost down the long road of realization and commercialization. Bush did not have the technology we have today. I think he would be astounded to see our capability but disappointed in how we have employed it. He did have a firm understanding of the core issues related to knowledge management (a term I do not like) and a number of ideas that are still not accomplished - and still needed. Like many seminal thinkers who pioneered a new model, he had insights which still ring true and represent worthy challenges for today’s designers. Bush was thinking systemically. Much of what I see now is “parts” focused with little integration from an augmentation perspective.

 
This “rethinking,” must combine today’s knowledge and experience with that of Bush’s time. Technology, then, was much more closely linked [future link white e-mail] to process and the physical roots of it were transparent. We cannot assume, even though comparing today’s capabilities to those of WWII is almost impossible, that everything we have today is better in every detail. I argue we could gain by looking at how Rome applied information technology let alone the generation before us. Human knowledge is accumulative. The application of it is too often isolated in its own time. As we combine the past and the present, we must bring THERE to HERE - this means actively applying future capabilities to the design of each iterative step forward. In this way, combining the past present and future to our design concepts, we can develop technology wisely, economically and build much greater utility, migration capability and thus, sustainability into our systems. And, if philosophy is allowed back in to the lab and workplace, we can accomplish human augmentation instead of merely making a new form of sweat shop for economic animals [future link].
 
If you consider the increase in the rate of change and complexity in our society, the amplification of the effect of human action on a global level, our manifest inability as a species to effectively deal with exponential change and systemic situations, the vulnerability of a great portion of human infrastructure, and the fragmentation of our various means of collaboration and governance, then I believe it becomes clear what technology products and systems are critical for the survival and prosperity of the human race and life in general on this planet. We need tools and processes that augment human understanding, ability to collaborate and act systemically. This was the dream of many who started the computer, information and multimedia industries. This dream has faded with the success of “products,” corporate mergers, mega-deals, fantastic profits and an abundance of neat toys many of which do not materially improve the human condition and prospect.
Final Thoughts
The generation ahead is unique in the history of humankind and I mean this beyond the simple fact that every generation is unique in some way and contributes to the advancement of humankind to some degree. In this period we will transform our world. The Earth itself will become a human artifact [link: rebuilding planet earth]. Human society will radically change. What it means to be human will be challenged and redefined again and again. Humanity and human technology will become entwined, inseparable and, ultimately, indistinguishable. The result can be a whole new expression of the meaning and potential of humanity or a nightmare of unbelievable proportions. The result will be the consequence of our individual and collective genius, our moral and esthetic sense, and our ability to think and design outside the framework of today’s social reality.
 
Freedom is possible only when people can choose. The ability to choose can be constrained by governments, by society, by individual beliefs, ignorance and psychology. There is a more insidious and dangerous form of constraint than these, which we are well aware of and can guard against. This is the innate inability to grasp the complexity of the very world we have created. The augmentation of human thought, creative and collaborative processes becomes, in this circumstance, critical to survival let alone success and happiness. It is here that the next generation of technology should be focused. This work will not be achieved in an isolated, theoretical environment. It will come about by systematic rapid prototyping in environments dedicated to addressing the very issues these tools are being created to deal with. This will be a feedback driven design/build/use process.
 
It is the next 25 years of Action Research in a Living Lab, and who will participate in its development and use, that is the important story to live and tell about.
 
 
 
 

POSTSCRIPT

It is not my place to describe the many demonstrations that I was able to see while at IDIAP. What is documented on this web site are my thoughts on the use of technology and the prospect for human augmentation.

Suffice to say that I saw many examples of works-in-progress that hold great promise for achieving important aspects of the agenda that I have outlined in this Paper.

IDIAP seems to me to be a remarkable organization filled to the brim with talent - not only smart people but dedicated people. There are many projects that if brought to market will contribute greatly to our world.

To any reader who has made the effort to get to the end of this Paper - and therefore has exhibited keen interest in the subject and remarkable endurance - I urge you to learn more about IDIAP and support their efforts in every way you can.

The tools we need will take the work of many. The time we have is not long. The range of possible outcomes is wide. The consequences are great.

 
 

Matt Taylor
Montreux
November 24, 2005

Elsewhere
December 22, 2005

 

 

SolutionBox voice of this document:
VISION • STRATEGY • EVALUATE

 

 

posted: January 5, 2005

revised: January 12, 2006
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(note: this document is about 60% finished)

Copyright© Matt Taylor 2005, 2006